Thursday, March 13, 2008

The Barisan Rakyat Dilemma..

Lim Kit Siang announced at his blog that he will not support the appointment of PAS Assemblyman Mohamad Nizar Jamaludin as Perak Menteri Besar. This caused shock to all the people around the state. I understand why Lim Kit Siang object this PAS appointment because they only got 6 seats meanwhile DAP won 18 seats followed by PKR in which got 7 seats. Technically, DAP hold the most seats in the coalition government and should have the rights to decide who to be the Perak Menteri Besar if the law barred non Malay to become one. DAP plan is to give the Menteri Besar post to PKR Behrang Assemblyman Jamaluddin Mohd Radzi if DAP representative not chosen, but the plan back slide.

The state of Perak has a unique problem where the coalition pack among the DAP, PKR and PAS only enough seats to deny BN from forming a government. If one of the coalitions packs break out from the agreement, this automatically put BN in a comfortable situation to government Perak for another 5 years. Technically, DAP not a majority holder in the state election, but BN. DAP cannot govern the state because they don't have the majority seats and most of the Malay votes went to PAS and PKR in which made 13 extra seats. DAP don't have any problem cooperate with PKR but they find it so difficult to do it with PAS due to previous experience they had. PAS already take hold of two states at the moment in which Kelantan and Kedah. They will add one state to their collection if PAS representative take the Menteri Besar post.

The problem now, DAP cannot break away from the coalition pack because this will automatically give BN a chance again to a 5 years rule at the state. The rules of law that prohibited non Malay to be a Menteri Besar is one of the problem that can be easily lifted if the Sultan of Perak exempted the law. I don't thing Sultan of Perak want a non Malay to be his right man as he will look so lame to his subjects if he did so. I don't really know why he didn't choose the PKR representative to be a Menteri Besar. I guess, maybe he didn't think that is such a good idea. DAP representative absolutely is out of consideration to hold a Menteri Besar post and with PKR and PAS, it seem that PAS is the favorite.

The Sultan of Perak decision seems not really troubling PKR at the moment. I don't see any official statement out from Anwar Ibrahim himself or his representative. Maybe PKR is having a big dilemma at the moment too and retain their status quo in this matter. I understand the complexity of this matter when a minority was elected as the leader of the government. This is not the first time it happens to a state. If anyone can remembers the rotation post of the Sabah Chief Minister. SAPP and LDP hold office for few years and both of them is the minority of the BN pack. I don't know if rotation can be done in this situation because of the indirect and direct involvement of the Sultan of Perak regarding to the state's legislative issue.

PAS can reject the Sultan of Perak appointment if they think this will not do any good thing to each others, but I doubt they will do that. Having to get the Sultan of Perak appointment is like getting a lottery ticket. It will not be as good as this in future if they run the state same as Terengganu last time. The application of Kelantan way of administration on a BN mind set doesn't work. It resulted lots of people change their mind on the way PAS doing their work. I don't meant to say that PAS way is bad, they actually far more better that how the BN government the country. The problem is to some liberal society who used to a liberal lifestyle such as gender mixing, free social lifestyle and doing other activities in PAS eyes is prohibited and against the teaching of Islam. Other peoples that do not live lifestyle as free and liberal will not have quarrel with PAS and happily can live their life. The reality is that most of the people of Terengganu are standing on the other side of life. BN fully utilized these differences and has taken back Terengganu in previous election.

I don't know if PAS will repeat his mistake on Kedah again, and in Perak if succeed in getting the Menteri Besar post. DAP could also call an end to this disagreement and let PAS take the lead in Perak. The least they can do is to manipulate the directive and agenda in the state's cabinet management. If they can get PKR to play along with the manipulation, PAS representative only will be sitting in a leadership post and take directive collectively or from DAP and PKR. PAS has the same stake to lose if DAP break out from the coalition. PKR and PAS coalition doesn't have enough seats to form a government and all will ended with BN again taken themselves for another next 5 years to be in Perak. Then all of them will lose everything.


Parvinder Kler said...

Well said-very reasoned. In Sabah, the rotation did lead to consternation among UMNo members and finally it was abandoned on teh principle that teh majority should lead (plus the CMs were favouring their friends no end and changing policies every 2 years). If in Perak it must be a Muslim, then the MB must come from PKR as they bind DAP & PAS together. The decision is a terrible one.

Jefferi said...

I don't think this decision is bad. Looking at situation, i trust PAS more than PKR. PKR is the fragment of UMNO members that split due to their conflict of interest. The risk of flip flop among PKR members are far more better than PAS. I do think that PKR is an easy target for UMNO to offer counter offers and lead to mass party hopping among the representative council as what happen to S46 last time. Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah left UMNO and form the new party on 1989 and return to UMNO on 1996 in which giving no alternative malay party until PKR formed. PBS have the same problem when most of the winning representative hop to BN and create a new party as a new component in BN. At last they them self hopping back to BN and now resulted two kadazandusun party in BN. This at last giving UMNO a good majority to take over the Sabah Chief Minister post forever.


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